Al-Qaeda in Syria Preparing For Possible Post Assad Era

                                                                      New Recruits of Al-Qaeda in Syria.

Al-Nusra front aka Jabhat Al-Nusra, the official branch of Al-Qaeda central in Syria is striving for strength, to make sure that Syria becomes a strong base of Al-Qaeda in the post-Assad era. Al-Nusra Front knows that ISIS is not the only competitor. The Al-Qaeda’s strategy in Syria shows they are more inclined towards propaganda, such as holding Shariah classes in Idlib and struggling hard to Islamize Free Syrian Army factions. Before launching attack on Jamal Marouf and his men, Al-Nusra Front remained silent for a long time and continued holding Shariah classes and distributing Islamic literature.

Al-Nusra Front strong relations with the rest of Islamist groups such as Ahrar Al-Sham, Sayfullah’s group, Jaish ul Muhajireen wal-Ansar (Chechens in Syria) and Jundul Aqsa sometimes show they are all ideologically one single Front. The groups who remained neutral in the battle between ISIS and non-ISIS Islamists are also joining Al-Nusra Front battle against ISIS especially after ISIS intensified their assault on Aleppo.

It’s more alarming for ISIS and the western world that Islamists from Afghanistan, East Turkestan, Maldives, and Turkey are joining Al-Nusra Front alliance. Fighters from Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) also fought side by side with Al-Nusra Front in the battle of Ariha (Idlib) and lost approx 20 of their fighters. The recent bombardments by US coalition on Al-Nusra bases also showed they too have a large number of non-Syrian fighters when it killed fighters from Turkey. Though Al-Nusra Front doesn’t show up their foreign fighters until they are killed and an eulogy video is needed.

Last days Al-Nusra Front and Jundul Aqsa raided FSA’s police station and shut it down for allegedly harassing locals of Idlib. Pro Al-Nusra sources said that locals filed many complaints to Al-Nusra Front against Free Syrian Police station. The silence of FSA on this matter also indicates they are not in a state of messing with Al-Nusra Front at this time when their relations with YPG are also disturbed.

Al-Nusra Front ‘ll take advantage of this quarrel between FSA and YPG. Twitter activist @archicivilians reported on 11 July 2015 that clashes took place between FSA and Kurd militias YPG in Aleppo and FSA was backed by Al-Nusra Front and Islamic Front factions. Another activist @IbnNabih1 said that the clashes were light ones and they’ve ended now. No YPG advances. In any such battle, Al-Nusra Front will gain benefit ideologically and on the ground as well. Though FSA and YPG fought together against ISIS in Tal abyad (Raqqah town bordering Turkey) and have good relations on many fronts but YPG alleged ethnic war crimes against the Arab population may dismantle any bond of alliance between YPG and FSA and can escalate war between the two anytime.

The analysts who predicted Al-Nusra Front possible defection from Al-Qaeda were also proved wrong after Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani (Leader of Al-Nusra Front) gave interview to Al-Jazeera. Thou he mentioned he would not use Syrian land to launch attacks on western powers but it might be considered that Al-Nusra Front is a wing of Al-Qaeda specified to work inside Syria exclusively and may have other units for the globalization of Jihad. Al-Nusra Front is now considered the second strongest branch of Al-Qaeda after AQAP of Yemen being on the top.  The possibility of Al-Nusra Front becoming the rulers of Syria in Post-Assad era is considered a serious threat by Alawaites, Hezbollah, and Iran. Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani said to Al-Jazeera, he would not attack Alawites who comes back to Islam, most likely it means if they don’t they would pay Jizya or Islamic tax to the possible Islamic authorities led by Al-Nusra Front. This is a critical situation for the minorities, especially the Shia sect and therefore Iran‘ll do its best to prevent any takeover of Islamists.

One can now say that Al-Nusra Front and other Islamist groups are the main players in Syrian unrest. The possibility of Al-Qaeda central (Afghanistan) additional assistance to Al-Nusra Front is also interesting, as some pro Al-Nusra twitters suggests that Ayman Al-Zawahiri might leave for Syria to lead the show by himself. On one side, Al-Nusra Front are striving hard for military power and at the same time spreading propaganda literature, holding Shariah classes and other Islamic activities, for a complete Islamization of Syria.
By: Ahmet Pashtun